Risk Analysis of Public Construction Projects in Pokhara Metropolitan City: Using Fuzzy DEMATEL Method
Student: Binay K.C.
Supervisor: Er. Mahesor Ghimire
Submitted Date:
July, 2026
Abstract
Infrastructure development and urban expansion in Pokhara Metropolitan City, Nepal,
have led to a major increase in construction projects. However, these projects are
frequently delayed and face challenges like cost overruns, quality problems, and
contractual disagreements. Traditional methods of assessing these risks struggle to capture
the vague and subjective nature of human judgment, where experts typically think in
descriptive terms like "High Risk" or "Low Impact" rather than exact numbers. To address
this issue, this research uses Fuzzy set theory paired with the Decision-Making Trial and
Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. This mathematical approach successfully
converts expert linguistic opinions from 38 construction stakeholders into quantifiable
values to systematically prioritize risk parameters and map out how they influence one
another.
The study reveals that Procurement Risk is the most prominent and severe risk factor
affecting construction projects in the Pokhara Valley, followed closely by Site Condition
Risk. Specifically, over half of the industry professionals flagged frequent changes to
public procurement laws as a notable hazard, while site-specific hurdles—such as
unpredictable geotechnical conditions and administrative disputes over extracting local
riverbed materials—critically disrupt project schedules. Additionally, management failures
act as root causes for project instability, with 90% of respondents pointing to poor on-site
management and 80% citing inadequate planning and budgeting as primary threats. In
conclusion, the research demonstrates that the local construction industry is heavily
impacted by regulatory shifts and localized site challenges rather than broader national
economic trends. To improve project predictability and success rates, stakeholders must
shift away from reactive habits and adopt structured, fuzzy-based frameworks to
proactively manage these interconnected risks.
Keywords
Pokhara Metropolitan City, Fuzzy DEMATEL, Prominent Risk, Procurement Risk, Site condition Risk.