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Risk Analysis of Public Construction Projects in Pokhara Metropolitan City: Using Fuzzy DEMATEL Method

Risk Analysis of Public Construction Projects in Pokhara Metropolitan City: Using Fuzzy DEMATEL Method

Student: Binay K.C.

Supervisor: Er. Mahesor Ghimire

Submitted Date: July, 2026

Abstract

Infrastructure development and urban expansion in Pokhara Metropolitan City, Nepal, have led to a major increase in construction projects. However, these projects are frequently delayed and face challenges like cost overruns, quality problems, and contractual disagreements. Traditional methods of assessing these risks struggle to capture the vague and subjective nature of human judgment, where experts typically think in descriptive terms like "High Risk" or "Low Impact" rather than exact numbers. To address this issue, this research uses Fuzzy set theory paired with the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. This mathematical approach successfully converts expert linguistic opinions from 38 construction stakeholders into quantifiable values to systematically prioritize risk parameters and map out how they influence one another. The study reveals that Procurement Risk is the most prominent and severe risk factor affecting construction projects in the Pokhara Valley, followed closely by Site Condition Risk. Specifically, over half of the industry professionals flagged frequent changes to public procurement laws as a notable hazard, while site-specific hurdles—such as unpredictable geotechnical conditions and administrative disputes over extracting local riverbed materials—critically disrupt project schedules. Additionally, management failures act as root causes for project instability, with 90% of respondents pointing to poor on-site management and 80% citing inadequate planning and budgeting as primary threats. In conclusion, the research demonstrates that the local construction industry is heavily impacted by regulatory shifts and localized site challenges rather than broader national economic trends. To improve project predictability and success rates, stakeholders must shift away from reactive habits and adopt structured, fuzzy-based frameworks to proactively manage these interconnected risks.

Keywords

Pokhara Metropolitan City, Fuzzy DEMATEL, Prominent Risk, Procurement Risk, Site condition Risk.