Nepal Engineering College | Thesis Abstract

All Thesis Abstracts

Factors Causing Design Changes During Construction Stage in Selected Government Building Projects Under Office of Federal Urban Development and Building Construction, Kathmandu Division.

Luniva Shakya

Dr. Dinesh Sukamani

Assessment of Ride Sharing Services and User Preference Shift from Two-wheel to Four-Wheel Vehicles: A Case Study in Kathmandu Valley

Resham Lamsal

Prof Dr Thusitha Chandani Shahi

Assessment of Time Duration Estimation Models for Design-Build and Design-Bid-Build Bridge Projects under Department of Roads

Mukunda Kumar Karn

Er. Parikshit Kadariaya

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOOD IN DHANGADHI SUB-METROPOLITAN CITY, KAILALI, NEPAL

Chitra Raj Joshi

Dr Narayan Prasad Koju

Growth of Urban Infrastructure through Land-Based Financing: A Study of Budhanilkantha Municipality.

Bimal Shahi

Dr. Dinesh Sukamani/ Mr. Manoj Kuwar

Commercial Water Extraction and Perceived Climate Change impacts on Water Securities leading to Conflicts in Matatirtha of Chandragiri Municipality, Nepal.

Rabina Bhattarai

Associate Professor Robert Dongol

Public Transport Demand Modeling and Service Adequacy Assessment on the Sankhu-Ratnapark Route

Student: Amraj B.K.

Supervisor: Dr. Pradeep Kumar Shrestha

Submitted Date: August, 2026

Abstract

Public transportation is an essential component of urban mobility, providing affordable and accessible transport services for daily commuters. This study was conducted along the Sankhu- Ratnapark Route in Kathmandu Valley with the objectives of identifying the key factors affecting public transport demand and service adequacy, developing an elasticity-based demand model, and assessing peak and off-peak demand patterns. The study adopted a quantitative research approach based on primary data collected through passenger count surveys, travel time surveys, bus stop observations, and Key Informant Interviews. A total of 30 bus trips were surveyed, and opinions from 18 transport experts and stakeholders were collected through KII. Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) analysis was employed to rank the factors affecting public transport demand and service adequacy. The results identified Travel Time, Fare, Passenger Waiting Time, Overcrowding and Service Frequency as the most influential factors affecting public transport demand on the Route. To quantify the relationship between passenger demand and operational service variables, a log-log elasticity demand model was developed using multiple regression analysis. The model achieved an R² value of 0.719 and an Adjusted R² value of 0.687, indicating that approximately 71.9% of the variation in passenger demand is explained by the selected operational variables. The results revealed that Travel Time, Passenger Waiting Time, and Fare have negative relationships with passenger demand, suggesting that increases in these variables lead to a reduction in public transport usage. The assessment of peak and off-peak demand patterns showed substantial variations in passenger demand, load factors, waiting times and service frequencies. The study concludes that reducing travel time and waiting time, maintaining affordable fares and improving service frequency can significantly enhance public transport demand and service adequacy along the Sankhu-Ratnapark Route.

Keywords

Demand Elasticity, Public Transport Demand, Service Adequacy, SNR Ratio, Peak and Off-Peak Demand assessment.