THESIS ABSTRACT

Abstract

Climate change poses a severe and escalating threat to agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods across the developing world, with smallholder farming communities in South Asia among the most exposed. This study examined the impacts of observed climatic trends on agriculture and household livelihoods in Dhangadhi Sub-Metropolitan City, Ward No. 03, Kailali District, Sudurpashchim Province, Nepal a peri-urban farming community in the far-western Terai that has received limited systematic scientific attention relative to central and eastern Nepal. A descriptive-analytical research design was adopted, integrating a structured household survey of 150 systematically sampled farming households with a 30-year secondary meteorological dataset (1993–2023) from Tikapur Station, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). Primary data were analysed using descriptive statistics (frequencies, percentages) in SPSS. Secondary climate data were analysed using ordinary least-squares (OLS) linear regression in Microsoft Excel to detect long-term monotonic trends in annual maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean annual precipitation. Linear regression revealed a statistically significant increase in annual Tmax of +0.033 °C per year over the study period (R² = 0.29, p = 0.002), representing approximately 1.0 °C of cumulative warming consistent with the national Terai warming rate documented by DHM (2017). Annual Tmin showed no significant trend (−0.019 °C yr⁻¹; R² = 0.07, p = 0.16). Annual precipitation exhibited no significant directional trend (slope = +0.138 mm month⁻¹ yr⁻¹; R² = 0.002, p = 0.83), though inter-annual variability was pronounced and approximately 85% of total annual rainfall was concentrated in the monsoon months (June–September). Against this measured climatic signal, household-reported impacts were substantial: 31.3% of surveyed households reported declining crop production, 36.7% declining agricultural income, and 41.3% food shortages of whom 41.3% of those who specified a duration (n = 19 of 46) experienced chronic shortages exceeding six months. Only 48.0% of farmers perceived rising temperatures, while 51.3% reported irregular or delayed monsoon rainfall. Fewer than half of households (48.7%) had adopted any adaptive measure, and 49.3% of those rated their interventions as ineffective or minimally effective. Synthesis of climatic and household evidence indicates that agricultural distress in Ward No. 03 is driven primarily by structural socio-economic vulnerabilities land fragmentation, subsistence- scale operations, non-mechanised production systems, rising input costs, and weak institutional support that climate variability and measured warming compound rather than independently create.

Keywords

Climate change, agriculture, Terai, farmer livelihoods, food security, adaptation strategies, Kailali.