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Hydrological Modeling and Flood Prediction Using Integrated HECHMS-HECRAS in the Karmanasa Khola Basin.

Hydrological Modeling and Flood Prediction Using Integrated HECHMS-HECRAS in the Karmanasa Khola Basin.

Student: Achal Acharya

Supervisor: Er. Sunil Ghaju

Submitted Date: August, 2026

Abstract

Nepal has been ranked as one of the most flood hazard prone countries in the world. Studies claim that flood as the most common and third most deadly disaster in Nepal. Flood causes loss of life, causalities, financial loss and displacements. Heavy monsoon rain, fragile geography, constructions along the embankments and mining in the upstream riverbeds cause the river to flood. Flooding, which can happen naturally or because of human activity, is the state in which a certain region is completely or partially immersed in water. Rivers are always an integral source of drinking water, energy, irrigation purposes, and hydroelectricity generation throughout history, but those who live close to rivers are frequently at risk of flooding. Thus, determining flood risk is very important for determining the advantages of flood protection measures and identifying the associated hazards and risks. An important aspect of disaster risk reduction and management is forecasting floods; this helps to save lives and property, and to mitigate the impact of flooding while enhancing the overall effectiveness of emergency response operations. The hydrological model utilized in this study is a semi-distributed conceptual model known as HEC-HMS, developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. This model specifically simulates rainfall-runoff processes in dendritic watershed systems (HEC-HMS, 2016). The HEC-RAS model is then further used to create flood inundation maps for distinct flood return periods. The flooding in the river is found to be corelated with maximum rainfall in a year and occurs particularly between June and September every year-the period of Monsoon season in Nepal.The study has demonstrated a clear relationship between the size of the floodplain and the annual peak discharge rate of floods at different return periods. The study has proposed several remedial strategies that would use some combination of plantings, bioengineering techniques, building a dry wall along the riverbank or using various types of non-structural flood management approaches to help with the rehabilitation of the area affected by these floods.

Keywords

Flood, Future Prediction, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, Inundation map