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An Assessment of Climate Change Patterns and their impacts on Rainfall and Hydropower generation Over Time in the Marshyangdi River Watershed.

An Assessment of Climate Change Patterns and their impacts on Rainfall and Hydropower generation Over Time in the Marshyangdi River Watershed.

Student: Roshan Poudel

Supervisor: Dr. Bikram Manandhar

Submitted Date: August, 2026

Abstract

Water resources are one of the sectors where the effects of climate change (CC) are being observed. Water Resources plays a crucial role in economy and agriculture of a nation. Therefore, in order to quantify the project's reliability, it is necessary to examine the impact of climate change on the river watershed and energy generation of hydroelectric projects. The time series data of rainfall, temperature of 36 years (1989-2025) and discharge data of 20 years (2000- 2019) of Marsyangdi River used to identify the trend and slope magnitude of this series. Mann- Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to analyze the trend. The linear trend of the rainfall and temperature data for the study area was assessed using linear regression in order to establish a functional relationship between the variables. The relationship between two variables data of time series was evaluated using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. These findings highlight the adverse effects of climate change on water availability and energy production. Reduced rainfall and declining river discharge could impair hydropower generation and other water-dependent projects. Therefore, incorporating climate change considerations into the design and management of hydrological structures is essential to ensure sustainable development. Based on the results, the study recommends implementing effective water management strategies to mitigate the impact of decreasing rainfall on water-related infrastructure. It also emphasizes the importance of accounting for climate change impacts in future hydrological and energy development projects. The insights provided by this research can guide policymakers, engineers, and stakeholders in developing adaptive and resilient water resource systems in the Marsyangdi River watershed.

Keywords

Climate Change, Water Resources, Marsyangdi River; Hydropower Generation, Mann–Kendall Test, Sen’s Slope Estimator