For a country such as Nepal, with the disadvantage of having such a challenging topography and recurring Natural Hazards, the much-needed improvement in the quality and quantity of infrastructure has not been seen to improve as required. The effects of natural hazards can be observed in terms of design as well as the post- construction phase. Much money as well as time has to be allocated to tackling and minimizing (if not preventing) the effects of such hazards. The longevity and efficiency of infrastructure can be said to improve the socioeconomic development of a nation. However, regular disruptions to infrastructure construction and operation have been seen as damaging the progress of society and the nation. These disruptions not only bring immediate effects of losses, such as financial and physical losses, but also long- term losses such as socio-economic impacts and loss of chances to improve the condition of living in the near future, as planned. On June 15, 2021, a devastating flood event occurred in the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River Basin in central Nepal. The flood displaced 525 families, resulted in 337 household damages, killed five and injured six people, and left 20 people unaccounted. The flood damaged 13-foot trail bridges, seven reinforced concrete bridges, a hydropower project, and the headwork of the Melamchi Water Supply Project, leading to enormous economic loss, which is not collectively estimated yet. The main objective of the study was to quantify water supply trends, revenue loss, management challenges, and potential remedial measures in the Melamchi water supply project. Data analysis was conducted using LSTM model, RII, and Spearman’s correlation. Out of the 60 respondents, 51 provided complete responses, accounting for 85% of the total. Reliability and validity assessments of the questionnaire were carried out prior to data analysis. vi This study explored how debris flow impacted the Melamchi Water Supply Project using a thorough mixed-methods approach. Research findings showed that predicting water levels during downtime was highly accurate, with just a 2.2 % average deviation, proving effectiveness discharge prediction and estimating revenue. Through trend analysis, we discovered a significant loss of 83,064.76 million litres over 503 days due to debris flow, highlighting the urgent need for effective mitigation measures. This debris flow resulted in a substantial revenue loss of NRs. 830,647,600 for KUKL, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive strategies to mitigate losses and ensure the long-term sustainability of water supply projects. After the 2021 debris flow, managing the project faced significant challenges, underscoring the critical role of the client-consultant-contractor relationship. Our analysis of preventive measures prioritized "Hazard mapping and zoning," closely followed by "Warning signal/Automatic gate system/Alternative channel" and "Check Dam." The study's approach integrated water supply trend analysis, revenue loss calculation, identification of management challenges, and evaluation of preventive measures, offering practical insights to enhance project resilience and ensure future success.

Keywords

Trend Analysis, Revenue Loss, Melamchi Water Supply Project, Debris Flow, Melamchi flood, Long-Short Term Memory

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